Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Tips & Odds
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Match Preview
The model favours RB Leipzig to win against Werder Bremen, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Leipzig starts the season in a strong position, currently sitting at third in the league. Despite having not played any matches yet in the current season, their recent form shows promise with three wins in their last five matches, including a strong finish to the previous season. Leipzig's attacking prowess will be crucial, as they look to convert their opportunities into goals. On the other hand, Werder Bremen finds themselves in a precarious position, starting the season in 15th place. They have had a mixed bag of results recently, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. While they managed to secure some victories, their overall form may not provide the confidence needed against a top-tier opponent like Leipzig. Bremen will need to tighten their defense and find a way to score if they hope to compete effectively. The model indicates a win probability for Leipzig at around 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests Leipzig is favoured in the betting lines. However, one caveat is that as both teams are starting their season, there is uncertainty regarding fitness levels and match readiness, which could impact the outcome. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
RB Leipzig have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 RB Leipzig win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. RB Leipzig are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.60 | |
| 4.25 | 4.25 | 1.78 | 1.39 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
| 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.75 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 4.20 | 4.35 | 1.76 | 1.42 | 2.98 | — | — | |
| 3.46 | 3.56 | 1.79 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.75 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.75 | |
| 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.32 | 4.32 | 1.81 | 1.39 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 2.69 | |
| 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.79 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.46 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 4.20 | 4.05 | 1.78 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 4.15 | 4.15 | 1.77 | 1.48 | 2.67 | 1.49 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.73 | 1.40 | 2.66 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (RB Leipzig leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig, RB Leipzig has won 6 times, Werder Bremen has not won, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several matches being closely contested; however, Leipzig has managed to secure victories consistently, including a notable 4-2 win. The presence of four draws suggests that while Leipzig has the upper hand, Werder Bremen has often held them to stalemates. It has been some time since Bremen last won against Leipzig, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this matchup.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | LW |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWerder Bremen have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Leipzig 3-1 and lost to Auxerre 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
RB Leipzig have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to RB Leipzig 3-1 and beat Eintracht Trier 0-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 3D 10L from the last 28 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWerder Bremen4-1-4-1Confirmed
RB Leipzig4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersWerder Bremen5
RB Leipzig5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
B. Brand has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by B. Brand to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Werder Bremen average 1.5 goals per match at home; RB Leipzig 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
RB Leipzig have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 54% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. RB Leipzig player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
