VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction, Tips & Odds
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
Match Preview
The model favours VfB Stuttgart to win against 1. FC Köln, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Stuttgart enters the season with a strong recent form, having secured three wins from their last five matches. This positive momentum may play a crucial role as they aim to solidify their position in the top tier of the Bundesliga. Their offensive capabilities, indicated by the goals scored in those matches, suggest they will be a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Köln has had a mixed bag in their recent performances, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. This inconsistency could be a concern as they look to start the new season on a positive note. Positioned lower in the standings, they will need to find a way to improve their overall form if they wish to challenge Stuttgart effectively. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Stuttgart, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that both teams are entering the season without any competitive match experience this year, which could lead to unpredictable performances. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
VfB Stuttgart have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 VfB Stuttgart win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature VfB Stuttgart clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. VfB Stuttgart are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.49 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.45 | 2.60 | |
| 1.47 | 5.25 | 6.20 | 1.32 | 3.14 | 1.46 | 2.52 | |
| 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 1.46 | 5.17 | 6.35 | 1.34 | 3.34 | — | — | |
| 1.47 | 4.29 | 4.74 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.44 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.49 | 5.33 | 6.30 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.46 | 2.56 | |
| 1.43 | 4.90 | 6.00 | 1.34 | 3.15 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 5.10 | 6.10 | 1.37 | 3.15 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 1.54 | 4.75 | 5.45 | 1.38 | 3.10 | 1.48 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.34 | 2.91 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (VfB Stuttgart leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln, VfB Stuttgart has won 6 times, with 2 draws and 2 victories for 1. FC Köln. The scorelines indicate a relatively strong performance by Stuttgart, with several wins by a margin of two or more goals, including a notable 4-2 in a friendly. Köln has struggled to find consistency, with their most recent win against Stuttgart dating back to December 2021. The overall record suggests Stuttgart has the upper hand, particularly in recent encounters, which have often favored them.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVfB Stuttgart have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 and beat Everton 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 9L from the last 32 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
1. FC Köln have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to 1. FC Köln 4-1 and beat Würzburger Kickers 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 10L from the last 25 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVfB Stuttgart4-4-2Confirmed
1. FC Köln4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersVfB Stuttgart7
1. FC Köln5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
C. Dingert has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by C. Dingert to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
VfB Stuttgart have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; 1. FC Köln 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. VfB Stuttgart player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
