SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
Match Preview
The model favours SC Freiburg to win this match against SC Paderborn 07, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Freiburg begins the season in a strong position, having finished last season in 7th place. Their recent form also supports their case, as they have secured four wins in their last five matches, showcasing a solid attacking capability and a resilient defence. On the other hand, SC Paderborn 07 finds themselves at the bottom of the standings, currently in 18th place without any points, having not yet played this season. However, their recent form indicates some promise, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. While they may have struggled last season, they have shown signs of improvement that could translate into competitive performances. The model output indicates a win probability favouring SC Freiburg, along with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is Freiburg's potential to dominate possession based on their recent performances. However, a caveat to consider is that Paderborn could surprise with a strong home advantage, which may disrupt Freiburg's rhythm. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
SC Freiburg have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. SC Freiburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.35 | |
| 3.40 | 3.72 | 2.13 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 1.55 | 2.29 | |
| 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.37 | 3.82 | 2.10 | 1.69 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 2.93 | 3.23 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.46 | 3.78 | 2.17 | 1.73 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.32 | |
| 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.07 | 1.64 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg stands at 3 wins for Paderborn, 3 wins for Freiburg, and 1 draw over the last 7 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry with no clear dominance from either side. The scorelines reflect a mix of tightly contested games, such as the 1-1 draw and several close matches, alongside a notable heavy win for Freiburg at 4-1. The most recent encounter saw Paderborn winning 3-1, showcasing their capability to claim victory against Freiburg, while Freiburg last won in 2019.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 16 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat SC Paderborn 07 3-1 and beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 2L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
SC Freiburg have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 and beat Motherwell 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 3D 12L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
SC Freiburg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SC Paderborn 07 average 1.9 goals per match at home; SC Freiburg 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
SC Freiburg have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SC Freiburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
