Aalesund vs Valerenga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Valerenga
Match Preview
The model favours Valerenga to win against Aalesund, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Valerenga sits in 9th place in the league, having accumulated 20 points from 15 matches. Their season has been marked by six wins, although they have also faced seven defeats. Notably, they have scored 22 goals while conceding 27, indicating a moderate offensive performance with some defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Aalesund is struggling in 14th place with only 13 points from 15 matches, reflecting a challenging season with just two wins. Their goal difference of -14, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded, highlights significant defensive issues that have plagued their campaign. Recent form shows a slight improvement with one win in their last five matches, but consistency remains a concern. The model gives Valerenga a win probability significantly higher than Aalesund, suggesting they are the more likely side to secure three points. However, Aalesund's home advantage could complicate matters, as they will be eager to improve their standing. For full details on the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Valerenga have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Valerenga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Valerenga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.80 | 3.90 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 2.90 | |
| 2.59 | 3.68 | 2.41 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.34 | 2.93 | |
| 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| 2.69 | 3.93 | 2.46 | 1.41 | 3.02 | — | — | |
| 2.47 | 3.57 | 2.25 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.65 | 3.77 | 2.47 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.34 | 2.99 | |
| 2.75 | 3.65 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 2.75 | 1.35 | 2.85 | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.65 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.92 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 3.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valerenga leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Aalesund and Valerenga, Valerenga has won 7 times, Aalesund has drawn 3 times, and Aalesund has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate that Valerenga has often dominated, with several heavy wins, including a 4-1 and a 4-0 victory. The drawn matches have been limited, suggesting that Aalesund struggles to compete effectively. Notably, Aalesund has not won against Valerenga in their last 10 encounters, which underscores a significant historical advantage for Valerenga in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 31 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 40 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 34 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 27 | WLDWL |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 | DLLLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 21 | DLLWW |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | LWLLD |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 15 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Valerenga 5-5 and lost to Tromso 2-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 12L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Valerenga have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Brann 2-3 and lost to Tromso 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 12L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersAalesund6
Valerenga4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Kellerhals has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Valerenga 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Valerenga have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Valerenga player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
