Aarhus vs Viborg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aarhus vs Viborg
Match Preview
The model favours Viborg with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Aarhus. Viborg currently sits in third place in the Superliga, showcasing a strong season with six wins from ten matches, alongside two draws and two losses. They have scored 17 goals while conceding only 8, resulting in a positive goal difference of 9. Their consistent form has seen them secure points effectively, which underlines their position as one of the top teams this season. In contrast, Aarhus is struggling at 11th place, having yet to secure a win this season. With five draws and four losses from their nine matches, they have scored 11 goals but conceded 17, leading to a goal difference of -6. Their recent form shows some signs of improvement with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, but their overall performance this season has left them in the relegation zone. The model gives Viborg a win probability of approximately 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Aarhus's ability to leverage home advantage, which could complicate Viborg's plans. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model utilises expected goals and actual results across the season to generate insights. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully crafted this approach to evaluate the match effectively.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Aarhus have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aarhus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aarhus vs Viborg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.58 | 2.74 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.63 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 3.68 | 2.82 | 1.60 | 2.36 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.22 | 2.59 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.34 | 3.58 | 2.75 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aarhus leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Aarhus and Viborg, Aarhus has won 5 times, drawn 4 times, and Viborg has won just once. This record indicates a strong advantage for Aarhus, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure narrow victories, with several matches ending with a scoreline of 2-1 or 1-2. The frequency of draws suggests competitive encounters, yet Aarhus's dominance is evident, especially considering Viborg's sole victory came several matches ago. Notably, Viborg has not won against Aarhus in their last six meetings, further emphasizing Aarhus's strong hold in this rivalry.
Superliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 19 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Brondby | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 | LWLLL |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 9 | DWDLD |
| 11 |  Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 12 |  Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 8 | DLLDW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAarhus have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aarhus 3-0 and beat Aarhus 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 11L from the last 42 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Viborg have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Viborg 0-2 and lost to Holstein Kiel 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 15L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAarhus
No reported absences
Viborg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aarhus have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Viborg 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aarhus have generated 1.65 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aarhus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
