Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Match Preview
The model favours Aberdeen to win against Kilmarnock, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Aberdeen currently sits in 8th place in the Premiership with 3 points from their opening two matches. Their season has seen a mixed start, but they have shown resilience, particularly with a recent form of four wins in their last five matches. The team's goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 2 goals so far, while their defence has conceded 3. Kilmarnock, on the other hand, is struggling at the bottom of the table in 12th place, yet to secure a point after two games. They have conceded a total of 9 goals, which highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities. Despite having scored 4 goals, their inability to convert chances into points has left them without a win, and their last five matches reflect a lack of consistency, with only 2 wins in that span. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Aberdeen, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Aberdeen winning by a margin of one goal, which stands at 40%. However, if Kilmarnock can tighten their defence, they could potentially cause an upset. For a more comprehensive breakdown of how these predictions were formulated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Aberdeen have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Aberdeen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.85 | 4.33 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.73 | 3.84 | 4.30 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.74 | 3.84 | 4.30 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 1.77 | 3.65 | 3.95 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aberdeen leads 6-4)Aberdeen hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings with 0 draws and 4 Kilmarnock wins. The record points to a tie Aberdeen have controlled for years, though the draws show Kilmarnock have at times kept it tight.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WWL |
| 4 |  Dundee | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LWWL |
| 5 |  Hibernian | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Motherwell | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAberdeen have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Rangers 0-1 and beat Dundee 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 3D 14L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kilmarnock have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to ST Johnstone 4-3 and drew with Peterhead 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 11L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAberdeen
No reported absences
Kilmarnock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aberdeen have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Kilmarnock 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aberdeen have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 2.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aberdeen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.