Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone
Match Preview
The model favours Aberdeen to win the match against St Johnstone, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 7th in the league, Aberdeen has had a mixed season with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from their 7 matches played. Their goal-scoring has been modest, with 7 goals for and 8 against, indicating a slight struggle in both attack and defence. However, their recent form shows a slight improvement with one win and three draws in their last five matches, suggesting they may be finding their rhythm. St Johnstone sits just above Aberdeen in 6th place, also with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, but with a slightly better goal difference. They have scored 9 goals but conceded 10, reflecting a similar challenge in defensive stability. Their recent form has not been encouraging, with one win and four matches without a victory. This inconsistency could be a concern as they head into this fixture. The model gives Aberdeen a 43.6% chance of winning, while St Johnstone has a 28.3% win probability. Additionally, there is a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. A potential caveat for Aberdeen is their inconsistency in converting chances, which could lead to dropped points if they fail to capitalize on opportunities. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Aberdeen have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Aberdeen clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Aberdeen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.14 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.16 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aberdeen leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Aberdeen and St Johnstone, Aberdeen has won 5 times, St Johnstone has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally tight contest, with many matches ending in draws or narrow margins. Aberdeen has often edged the encounters, with their victories typically by a single goal, while St Johnstone's lone win came in February 2024. The frequency of draws and low-scoring matches suggests that while Aberdeen has the upper hand historically, many games have been closely contested.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAberdeen have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Aberdeen 0-1 and beat Aberdeen 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 5D 15L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Johnstone have won 7 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Dundee 1-1 and lost to Heart Of Midlothian 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 4L from the last 18 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAberdeen
No reported absences
ST Johnstone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aberdeen have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; ST Johnstone 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aberdeen have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aberdeen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
