Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
Match Preview
The model favours Heart Of Midlothian to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the Premiership, Hearts have had a solid season so far, accumulating 13 points from their first seven matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, with 14 goals scored, while they have also shown defensive resilience, conceding only 8. With three wins in their last five matches, their recent form indicates a team that is building momentum. On the other hand, ST Mirren finds themselves in fifth place with 10 points. Their record of three wins, one draw, and three losses suggests inconsistency this season. They have managed to score 8 goals but have also conceded 9, leading to a negative goal difference. Their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives Heart Of Midlothian a 60.5% probability of winning, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 22.6%, and ST Mirren's chances are at 16.9%. One key market to note is the over 2.5 goals at 58.3%. However, a potential caveat for Hearts is their past performance against teams that sit lower in the table, which can sometimes lead to unexpected results. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results across the season, as provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Heart Of Midlothian clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.65 | 6.05 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.62 | 2.13 | |
| 1.47 | 4.76 | 6.06 | 1.51 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.17 | 5.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.38 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.45 | 4.65 | 6.06 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.30 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren, Heart Of Midlothian has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and ST Mirren has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including four draws. However, Heart Of Midlothian has had a few significant victories, notably a 4-0 win and a 3-1 win, suggesting they can secure heavy wins when they perform well. ST Mirren's last victory in this matchup dates back to 2024, indicating a struggle to maintain consistent success against Heart Of Midlothian recently.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 | ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHeart Of Midlothian have won 12 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 and drew with Heart Of Midlothian 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 10L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Mirren have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rangers 1-0 and beat Kilmarnock 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 14L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHeart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
ST Mirren
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Heart Of Midlothian have averaged 6.7 corners per match at home; ST Mirren 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
