Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction, Tips & Odds
Motherwell vs Celtic
Match Preview
The model favours Celtic to win against Motherwell, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Celtic currently sits at the top of the Premiership table with 18 points from seven matches, boasting an impressive record of six wins and just one loss. Their strong goal difference of +10, alongside 14 goals scored and only four conceded, highlights their dominance in the league this season. On the other hand, Motherwell is positioned 9th, having accumulated only 8 points from their seven matches. Their season has been a struggle, with two wins, two draws, and three losses. The team has scored 9 goals but has let in 11, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Recent form shows a slight improvement, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches, but they will need to find consistency to challenge a team like Celtic. According to the model, Celtic has a 64.2% probability of winning the match, while Motherwell's chances stand at 15.1% and the likelihood of a draw at 20.7%. A notable caveat for Celtic is the potential for complacency, as they may underestimate their opponent. For detailed methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team is committed to providing data-driven insights for your betting decisions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Celtic have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Celtic win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Celtic are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Motherwell vs Celtic| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 6.46 | 4.60 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Celtic leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Motherwell and Celtic, Celtic has won 7 times, Motherwell has won once, and there have been 2 draws. This record indicates a dominant performance by Celtic, particularly as they have achieved several convincing victories, including a 4-0 win and a 3-0 win. The scorelines suggest that while Motherwell has managed to secure a win, their success is limited, and their last victory over Celtic occurred in December 2025. The matches have featured a mix of narrow contests, but Celtic's overall edge is clear in this head-to-head history.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMotherwell have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Motherwell 0-4 and beat Motherwell 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 14L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Celtic have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rangers 3-0 and beat ST Johnstone 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 8L from the last 35 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMotherwell
No reported absences
Celtic
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Motherwell have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Celtic 7.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celtic have generated 2.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celtic player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.