Falkirk vs Dundee Prediction, Tips & Odds
Falkirk vs Dundee
Match Preview
The model favours Falkirk to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 11th in the league, Falkirk has struggled this season, managing only one win from their seven matches. With a goal difference of -3, they have scored 6 goals while conceding 9. However, their recent form shows some signs of improvement, as they have secured draws in two of their last five matches, indicating potential for a turnaround. Dundee sits in 4th place, having accumulated 10 points from their seven games. Their record of three wins, one draw, and three losses reflects a moderate level of consistency this season. Despite a mixed recent form with two wins in their last five matches, they have shown resilience, scoring 9 goals and allowing 7. However, their position in the standings could be precarious if they fail to capitalize on their opportunities against lower-ranked teams. The model gives Falkirk a 47.2% chance of winning, while Dundee's win probability is slightly lower at 26.5%. The expectation is for over 2.5 goals in the match, with both teams likely to find the net given a 57.2% probability for both teams to score. One caveat for Falkirk is their need to maintain composure, as defensive lapses could undermine their chances. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Falkirk have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Falkirk are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Falkirk vs Dundee| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.99 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.61 | 1.75 | 2.10 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.10 | 3.04 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Falkirk leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Falkirk and Dundee stands at 5 wins for Falkirk, 1 draw, and 4 wins for Dundee over the last 10 matches. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with Falkirk slightly edging out Dundee in terms of victories. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, with several matches decided by a single goal, such as Falkirk's recent 1-0 win in February 2026 and Dundee's 1-0 win in December 2025. However, Dundee has also registered two heavy wins, 3-0, in 2022, showing that both teams have had their moments of dominance.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFalkirk have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Falkirk 2-1 and lost to Falkirk 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dundee have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Dundee Utd 0-2 and lost to Aberdeen 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 14L from the last 35 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFalkirk
No reported absences
Dundee
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Falkirk have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Dundee 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Falkirk have generated 0.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 2.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Falkirk player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.