Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
Match Preview
The model favours Aberdeen to win this match against St Mirren, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in seventh place, Aberdeen has shown a slight upturn in form with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Their goal-scoring record stands at seven goals for and eight against, indicating a need to tighten their defence while continuing to find the back of the net. In contrast, St Mirren occupies fifth place but enters this fixture with a less favourable recent form, having secured just one win in their last five outings. With three losses and one draw during that stretch, their overall goal differential is slightly worse than Aberdeen's, with eight goals scored and nine conceded. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to secure points away from home. According to the model, Aberdeen has a 51.1% chance of winning, while a draw is pegged at 25.6% and St Mirren at 23.3%. A key market to watch is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals, currently at 52.9%. One caveat for Aberdeen is their tendency to concede goals, which could allow St Mirren to capitalise if they find their rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Aberdeen have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Aberdeen clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Aberdeen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.80 | 3.68 | 4.05 | 1.76 | 1.99 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.82 | 3.68 | 4.03 | 1.76 | 1.99 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (ST Mirren leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Aberdeen and ST Mirren, ST Mirren has won 6 times, Aberdeen has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards ST Mirren's dominance, with several decisive wins, including a 3-0 victory and a 2-0 win. Aberdeen's victories have been narrower, with their wins being by a single goal margin. The matches have featured a mix of high-scoring encounters, such as the recent 3-3 draw, and lower-scoring games, suggesting a competitive rivalry. Aberdeen last won against ST Mirren in October 2025, highlighting a challenging period for them in this fixture.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 | ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAberdeen have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Aberdeen 0-1 and beat Aberdeen 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 5D 15L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Mirren have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rangers 1-0 and beat Kilmarnock 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 14L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAberdeen
No reported absences
ST Mirren
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aberdeen have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; ST Mirren 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aberdeen have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aberdeen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.