Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow Prediction, Tips & Odds
Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow
Match Preview
The model favours Akhmat to win against Spartak Moscow, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Akhmat has shown solid form recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. This consistency suggests a strong home advantage as they continue to build momentum in the season. On the other hand, Spartak Moscow has had a mixed bag of results, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have managed to secure points, their inability to consistently convert draws into wins could hinder their performance against a confident Akhmat side. The model indicates a higher win probability for Akhmat based on their recent form and home advantage. However, it is essential to consider that Spartak Moscow is a capable opponent, and any lapse in concentration from Akhmat could lead to an unexpected result. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Spartak Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Spartak Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.05 | 3.64 | 1.93 | 1.82 | 2.00 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 4.06 | 3.66 | 1.94 | 1.85 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 3.52 | 3.29 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 4.14 | 3.72 | 1.98 | 1.88 | 2.07 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
Superbet | 3.70 | 3.45 | 1.97 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Spartak Moscow leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Akhmat and Spartak Moscow, Akhmat has won 1, there have been 5 draws, and Spartak Moscow has won 4. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws and low-scoring matches, as evidenced by five fixtures ending in 0-0 or 1-1. Spartak Moscow's victories have included a mix of narrow wins, with three of their four wins being by a single goal. Akhmat's last win came in December 2023, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success against Spartak in recent encounters.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 6 | LWW |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 4 |  Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 13 | Akhmat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 14 |  Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LDD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 16 |  Akron | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAkhmat have won 11 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Akhmat 1-0 and beat Akhmat 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 5L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Spartak Moscow have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Akhmat 1-2 and drew with Zenit 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAkhmat4-2-3-1Confirmed
Spartak Moscow4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
2 playersAkhmat
No reported absences
Spartak Moscow2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Akhmat have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Spartak Moscow 7.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Spartak Moscow have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 55% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Spartak Moscow player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
