Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC to win against Al Diriyah, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Al-Qadisiyah currently sits in a strong fourth position in the league standings, having secured three points from their opening match with a solid goal difference of +2. With three goals scored and only one conceded, their attacking prowess appears sharper, and their recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as the season progresses. In contrast, Al Diriyah is struggling at 13th place, having lost their only match this season without scoring. Their recent form of two losses followed by three wins in previous matches suggests inconsistency. The team will need to find a way to convert their chances into goals if they hope to turn their season around, especially against a team that has shown a more robust attacking display. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 60% for Al-Qadisiyah FC, making them the clear favourites. However, a potential caveat is that if Al Diriyah can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Al-Qadisiyah, they might pose a threat. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Al-Qadisiyah FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.80 | 4.80 | 1.45 | 1.42 | 2.80 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 5.60 | 4.70 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.51 | 2.32 | |
| 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 5.91 | 5.19 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 3.01 | — | — | |
| 5.32 | 4.38 | 1.41 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 5.25 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 5.84 | 4.80 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.52 | 2.34 | |
| 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 5.80 | 5.10 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 2.90 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 0 wins each and 1 draws across the last 1 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl Diriyah have won 5 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-2 and drew with Al Kholood 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 5L from the last 16 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 11 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al Diriyah 0-2 and beat NEOM 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 3L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAl Diriyah5-4-1Confirmed
Al-Qadisiyah FC3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Diriyah
No reported absences
Al-Qadisiyah FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al Diriyah have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Al-Qadisiyah FC 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Qadisiyah FC have generated 2.67 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Qadisiyah FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
