Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Match Preview
The model favours Al Shabab to win against Al-Qadisiyah FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al Shabab begins the season in a strong position, having finished fourth last season. Despite a mixed form in their last five matches with only two wins, their overall performance suggests a competitive edge, particularly when playing at home. On the other hand, Al-Qadisiyah FC starts the season in tenth place and has shown a more consistent form recently, with three wins in their last five matches. However, their prior season finish may indicate challenges ahead, as they seek to build momentum against a strong opponent. The model gives Al Shabab a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their stronger historical performance. While they are favoured to win, an early-season match can be unpredictable, particularly if they are unable to convert chances or if Al-Qadisiyah can capitalize on any mistakes. The full method, which includes expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Al-Qadisiyah FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.55 | 1.48 | 2.65 | 1.50 | 2.35 | |
| 5.05 | 4.40 | 1.46 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 5.24 | 4.80 | 1.52 | 1.46 | 2.70 | — | — | |
| 4.68 | 4.04 | 1.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 5.24 | 4.57 | 1.52 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 2.34 | |
| 5.00 | 3.95 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 2.43 | 1.56 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 5.20 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, although the recent scorelines suggest a trend towards competitive matches. The games have been relatively tight, with several fixtures being decided by a single goal, such as Al Shabab's 1-0 win in September 2024 and Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2-1 victory in December 2020. The last time Al-Qadisiyah FC secured a win was in December 2025, highlighting the competitive nature of these encounters.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl Shabab have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-2 and drew with Al Riyadh 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 11L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 11 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al Diriyah 0-2 and beat NEOM 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 3L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Shabab
No reported absences
Al-Qadisiyah FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al Shabab have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Al-Qadisiyah FC 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Qadisiyah FC have generated 2.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Qadisiyah FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
