AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction, Tips & Odds
AS Roma vs Atalanta
Match Preview
The model favours AS Roma to win against Atalanta, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. AS Roma enters the season in 6th place and has struggled in their last five matches, recording only one win alongside two draws and two losses. Despite this mixed form, their overall competitive history and home advantage at Stadio Olimpico could play a crucial role in securing a positive start to the season. Atalanta, currently in 9th place, also begins their campaign with a clean slate. Their recent form has been stronger, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests they are capable of competing effectively, but their away performance will be key in this matchup against a traditionally strong Roma side. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 58% for AS Roma, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that both teams are starting the season fresh, and early-season unpredictability can lead to surprising results. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AS Roma clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AS Roma vs Atalanta| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.69 | 3.65 | 4.90 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.93 | |
| 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.71 | 2.17 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.15 | 1.72 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 1.71 | 3.31 | 4.17 | 1.93 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.72 | 4.20 | 5.11 | 1.76 | 2.24 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 1.93 | 1.86 | 1.82 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.80 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atalanta leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between AS Roma and Atalanta, Atalanta has won 6 times, AS Roma has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a notable advantage for Atalanta, with several narrow victories, but also a significant 4-1 win for AS Roma in December 2021. Recent matchups suggest Atalanta's dominance, as they have not lost to AS Roma in their last five encounters, which includes three wins and two draws. The last victory for AS Roma against Atalanta came over a year ago, highlighting Atalanta's strong performance in this head-to-head.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAS Roma have won 9 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atalanta 2-1 and beat Fiorentina 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 7L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atalanta have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atalanta 2-1 and beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 9L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersAS Roma4
Atalanta3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Colombo has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Colombo to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AS Roma have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Atalanta 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 2.16 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
