Parma vs Monza Prediction, Tips & Odds
Parma vs Monza
Match Preview
The model favours Parma to win against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Parma currently sits in 16th place after their opening match of the season, where they experienced a narrow loss. Despite this setback, their recent form shows a more competitive edge, with one win and two draws in their last five matches. This suggests that they have the capability to bounce back and improve on their early-season performance. On the other hand, Monza is struggling at the bottom of the table in 20th place, also coming off a loss in their opening fixture. Their recent form highlights some inconsistency, with two wins but also a significant goal difference of -3 over their last five matches. This indicates defensive vulnerabilities that Parma could exploit, especially given their home advantage. The model gives Parma a higher win probability in this matchup, reflecting their slightly better recent form and home status. However, a potential caveat is that if Monza can tighten their defense and find their scoring touch, they could pose a challenge. For a full understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model uses expected goals and actual results to analyze fixtures.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Parma manage games at home, conceding just 1.20 goals per match. Monza score 1.93 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.9% probability.
Parma have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Parma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Parma vs Monza| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 3.10 | 2.92 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.81 | 3.02 | 2.85 | 2.22 | 1.68 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
| 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 2.85 | 3.02 | 2.90 | 2.26 | 1.69 | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 2.89 | 2.74 | 2.38 | 1.58 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.87 | 3.08 | 2.91 | 2.29 | 1.73 | 1.84 | 1.88 | |
| 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.35 | 1.58 | 1.96 | 1.79 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 1.95 | 1.82 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Parma leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between Parma and Monza shows Parma winning 1 match, with 3 draws and Monza failing to secure any wins in their last 4 encounters. The scorelines indicate a tightly contested rivalry, with two matches ending in draws and Parma only managing a single goal victory in their win. The matches have generally been low-scoring, highlighted by two goalless draws. Monza has not won against Parma in this sample, with their last victory over them dating back to before the recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 16 | Parma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 17 | Monza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonParma have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Monza 1-1 and lost to Cremonese 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 11L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monza have won 3 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Monza 0-1 and lost to Inter 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 5L from the last 14 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedParma3-5-2Confirmed
Monza3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersParma3
Monza6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. La Penna has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. La Penna to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Parma have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Monza 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Parma have generated 0.65 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Parma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
