Frosinone vs Venezia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Frosinone vs Venezia
Match Preview
The model favours Frosinone to win against Venezia, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Frosinone currently sits 17th in the Serie A standings, having played one match without securing any points. Their season began with a loss, but the team has shown some resilience with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. The key statistic for Frosinone is their goal difference of -1, which indicates a narrow defeat, suggesting they are competitive despite their current standing. On the other hand, Venezia is at the bottom of the table in 19th place, also without any points from their opening match. They have suffered a heavier defeat, losing 2-0, which reflects a concerning start to their season. Over their last five matches, Venezia has managed two wins, one draw, and two losses. However, their recent form does not inspire confidence, especially considering they have yet to score this season. According to the model, Frosinone has a better win probability in this matchup, with a projected score of 1-0. One key market percentage to note is Frosinone's implied odds of winning. However, the potential for an upset exists, particularly if Venezia can improve their attacking output. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Frosinone have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Frosinone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Frosinone vs Venezia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.70 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.63 | 3.55 | 2.65 | 1.53 | 2.32 | 1.44 | 2.57 | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.71 | 1.57 | 2.49 | — | — | |
| 2.59 | 3.11 | 2.36 | 1.87 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.69 | 3.63 | 2.71 | 1.53 | 2.32 | 1.44 | 2.61 | |
| 2.70 | 3.35 | 2.48 | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 2.77 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 2.77 | 3.35 | 2.60 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.66 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Frosinone leads 5-3)The head-to-head record between Frosinone and Venezia shows Frosinone winning 5 matches, Venezia winning 3, and 2 matches ending in draws over their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight and decisive results, with Frosinone achieving three victories by at least two goals, suggesting they have had the upper hand in several instances. The most recent match saw Venezia win 2-1, marking their first victory over Frosinone since February 2021. Overall, while the record is relatively close, Frosinone has historically secured more wins, demonstrating a slight advantage.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFrosinone have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Benevento 2-1 and beat Como 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 2L from the last 18 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Venezia have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Frosinone 3-2 and lost to Udinese 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 7L from the last 17 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersFrosinone1
Venezia5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Perri has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Frosinone have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Venezia 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Frosinone have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Frosinone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
