Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fiorentina vs Torino
Match Preview
The model favours Torino to win this match against Fiorentina, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Torino enters this season after a reasonably strong finish last term, having secured three wins in their last five matches. This form indicates a team that has found a rhythm, and they will look to carry that momentum into the new campaign. Fiorentina, on the other hand, is starting the season with a mixed form, having recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Positioning themselves in 14th place last season may not inspire confidence, but they could leverage their home advantage at Stadio Artemio Franchi to turn their fortunes around. The model gives Torino a win probability of 55%, indicating a modest edge over Fiorentina. However, one caveat to consider is the potential for early-season jitters, as both teams are yet to play a competitive match this season. The full methodology of our analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Fiorentina manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Torino score 1.21 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Fiorentina have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fiorentina clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fiorentina are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fiorentina vs Torino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.25 | 4.30 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.85 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.33 | 1.94 | 1.89 | 1.76 | 1.95 | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.60 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 1.95 | 3.48 | 4.36 | 1.99 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 1.92 | 3.07 | 3.53 | 2.16 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.33 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.99 | 3.48 | 4.42 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
| 1.92 | 3.25 | 4.10 | 2.17 | 1.66 | 1.94 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.45 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
Superbet | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 1.95 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.73 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fiorentina leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Fiorentina and Torino, Fiorentina has won 3 times, there have been 5 draws, and Torino has emerged victorious on 2 occasions. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, including three goalless encounters. While Fiorentina has had a slight edge in the head-to-head record, there are no heavily one-sided results, with the largest margin being Torino's 4-0 win in January 2022. The last time Torino won was in January 2023, suggesting a balanced contest in recent meetings.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 14 | Torino | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFiorentina have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Torino 1-2 and lost to Frosinone 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 11L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Torino have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Torino 1-2 and lost to Sassuolo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 13L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersFiorentina4
Torino3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Massa has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fiorentina have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Torino 3.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fiorentina have generated 1.04 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fiorentina player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
