AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction, Tips & Odds
AS Roma vs Genoa
Match Preview
The model favours AS Roma to win against Genoa, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. AS Roma currently sits at the top of the Serie A standings, having won four of their five matches this season. Their strong form is highlighted by a goal difference of +11, with 14 goals scored and only 3 conceded. This defensive solidity, combined with their attacking prowess, makes them formidable opponents. In contrast, Genoa is struggling at the bottom of the table, positioned 19th with just one point from their first five matches. They have yet to secure a victory, recording four losses and only one draw. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, netting only three goals while conceding ten, which has contributed to their poor standing. The model indicates a high probability of an AS Roma victory, with a projected score of 3-0. However, a potential caveat is that if Genoa can tighten their defence and exploit any lapses from Roma, they could pose a challenge. For further details on our prediction methodology, which utilizes expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 AS Roma win as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AS Roma clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AS Roma vs Genoa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.30 | 6.25 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 1.47 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 6.13 | 1.85 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.08 | 5.99 | 1.69 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.55 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.58 | 4.43 | 6.44 | 1.83 | 2.14 | 1.82 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.80 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AS Roma leads 6-2)In their last 10 encounters, AS Roma has won 6 matches, drawn 2, and Genoa has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for AS Roma, with several matches featuring narrow wins, including four 1-0 results. However, Genoa's recent 4-1 win shows that they can produce heavy victories against Roma. The drawn fixtures suggest a tendency for tightly contested matches, particularly the 1-1 draw in 2024. Genoa's last win against Roma occurred in March 2026, indicating a potential challenge for them in maintaining competitive results in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 | DWLDW |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDWLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAS Roma have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with AS Roma 2-2 and beat AS Roma 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 11D 7L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Genoa have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rapid 2-0 and lost to Parma 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 15L from the last 34 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
13 playersAS Roma6
Genoa7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rosario Abisso has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Rosario Abisso to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AS Roma have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Genoa 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 2.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
