Bologna vs Inter Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bologna vs Inter
Match Preview
The model favours Inter to win against Bologna, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Inter currently sits in a strong second position in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 13 points from five matches with four wins, one draw, and no losses. They have been prolific in front of goal, scoring 15 times while conceding 8, resulting in a positive goal difference of 7. Their recent form shows consistency, with three wins and one draw in their last five outings. On the other hand, Bologna is struggling at the bottom of the table, currently in 18th place with just 2 points from five matches. They have yet to secure a win, managing only two draws and suffering three losses. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, with only 3 goals to their name and 6 conceded, leading to a goal difference of -3. Their recent form is concerning, highlighted by two draws and three losses in their last five matches. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 70% for Inter, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that if Bologna can tighten their defence and find a way to convert chances into goals, they could make the match more competitive. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Inter have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Inter are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bologna vs Inter| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.90 | 4.15 | 1.61 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 1.70 | 2.03 | |
| 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 6.29 | 4.15 | 1.57 | 1.68 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 4.62 | 3.78 | 1.55 | 1.62 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 5.99 | 4.22 | 1.64 | 1.73 | 2.28 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 5.60 | 3.95 | 1.62 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 2.11 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between Bologna and Inter, both teams have each won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive encounters, with several close matches such as the 3-3 draw and multiple 1-1 results. However, there have also been instances of one-sided results, notably Inter's 6-1 victory in November 2022. Bologna's last win over Inter was in December 2023, suggesting they have found some success in recent meetings, while Inter has been able to secure wins as well. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced rivalry with no clear dominance.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 | DWLDW |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 | WDLDL |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDWLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBologna have won 5 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bologna 1-1 and drew with Bologna 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 14L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Inter have won 9 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with AS Roma 2-2 and lost to Real Madrid 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 9D 5L from the last 36 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersBologna5
Inter3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Daniele Doveri has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Daniele Doveri to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bologna have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Inter 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Inter have generated 2.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Inter player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
