Venezia vs Napoli Prediction, Tips & Odds
Venezia vs Napoli
Match Preview
The model favours Napoli to win against Venezia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Napoli currently sits in ninth place in Serie A, having accumulated seven points from five matches this season. They have won two, drawn one, and lost two, scoring a total of seven goals while conceding six. Despite a mixed start, their goal difference of plus one indicates they have been competitive in most matches. On the other hand, Venezia finds themselves at the bottom of the league, having lost all five of their matches this season, with a total of four goals scored and thirteen conceded. Their goal difference of minus nine highlights ongoing defensive struggles. With no points to their name, Venezia will be looking to turn their fortunes around, but their current form, which shows five consecutive losses, suggests they are struggling to find any rhythm. The model gives Napoli a win probability of around 65%, reflecting their superior league position and overall performance this season. However, a potential caveat is Napoli's recent inconsistency, as they have only managed one win in their last five matches. For a detailed explanation of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines the use of expected goals and actual results to assess team performance.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Napoli have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Napoli are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Venezia vs Napoli| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.69 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.07 | |
| 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.84 | 4.12 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 4.08 | 3.53 | 1.67 | 1.70 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.67 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 4.89 | 4.22 | 1.74 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 2.03 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Napoli leads 3-0)In the last four matches between Venezia and Napoli, the record stands at 0 wins for Venezia, 1 draw, and 3 wins for Napoli. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Napoli, with Venezia failing to score in three of those encounters. Notably, the only draw was a goalless stalemate, suggesting a tendency toward low-scoring matches. Venezia has not secured a victory against Napoli since their most recent meeting, underlining Napoli's strong historical advantage in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDWLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVenezia have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Venezia 0-2 and lost to Venezia 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 8L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Napoli have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Napoli 3-1 and drew with Fiorentina 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 10L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
13 playersVenezia7
Napoli6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Juan Luca Sacchi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Juan Luca Sacchi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Venezia have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Napoli 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Napoli have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Napoli player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
