AS Roma vs Inter Prediction, Tips & Odds
AS Roma vs Inter
Match Preview
The model favours AS Roma to win against Inter with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently, AS Roma sits at the top of the Serie A standings, having won all three of their matches this season, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 1, which gives them a remarkable goal difference of 9. This strong form showcases their defensive solidity and attacking prowess, making them a formidable opponent at home. Inter, positioned second in the league, also boasts an impressive start to the season with three consecutive wins. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 3, resulting in a goal difference of 5. Their perfect record reflects a consistent attacking approach, as evidenced by their five-match winning streak, which indicates they are in good form heading into this fixture. According to the model, AS Roma has a solid win probability, reflecting their strong start to the season. However, one caveat is that both teams are currently unbeaten, and a tight contest could lead to an unexpected outcome. For further insights on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this method to provide a data-driven perspective on upcoming matches.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AS Roma vs Inter| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.77 | 3.46 | 2.62 | 1.60 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 2.52 | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.79 | 3.44 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 2.48 | 3.28 | 2.36 | 1.64 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.82 | 3.52 | 2.66 | 1.66 | 2.43 | 1.46 | 2.56 | |
Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Inter leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between AS Roma and Inter, Inter has won 8 times while AS Roma has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, as Inter has often managed to win by a margin, including a notable 4-2 victory and several 1-0 and 2-0 wins. AS Roma's last win against Inter was in April 2025, suggesting a challenge for them to consistently contend with Inter's dominance in these fixtures. Overall, the data reflects Inter's strong upper hand in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAS Roma have won 9 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atalanta 2-1 and beat Fiorentina 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 7L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Inter have won 9 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cagliari 0-1 and beat Juventus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 3L from the last 30 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAS Roma3-4-2-1Confirmed
Inter3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAS Roma
No reported absences
Inter
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Massa has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Massa to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AS Roma have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Inter 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 2.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
