Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atalanta vs Bologna
Match Preview
The model favours Atalanta to win against Bologna, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the current league leaders, Atalanta enters this match with a strong recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, and they will look to build on this momentum as they start their campaign. Bologna, positioned just behind Atalanta in the standings, also comes into this match having shown some resilience. However, their recent form is less convincing, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings. While they have the capacity to challenge, they will need to address their defensive vulnerabilities to stand a chance against a strong Atalanta side. According to the model, Atalanta has a win probability of around 60% in this matchup. While they are favoured to take the three points, a potential pitfall could be an overreliance on their attacking players, which might leave them exposed at the back. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Atalanta manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Bologna score 1.12 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Atalanta have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atalanta clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Atalanta are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atalanta vs Bologna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.94 | 3.64 | 4.15 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 1.96 | |
| 1.95 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.95 | 3.66 | 4.10 | 1.96 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.44 | 3.79 | 1.97 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.97 | 3.70 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.75 | 1.98 | |
| 1.86 | 3.45 | 4.10 | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.76 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.15 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.95 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna stands at four wins for each side with two draws in their last ten encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither team consistently dominating the other. The scorelines show a mix of narrow victories, with four matches ending in a one-goal difference, and two matches resulting in draws, suggesting competitive matchups. Additionally, both teams have managed to secure shutouts against each other, which reflects a tendency for low-scoring outcomes. Bologna's last win was in December 2023, marking a competitive period for both clubs in recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 15 | Bologna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtalanta have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atalanta 1-0 and beat Atalanta 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 9L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bologna have won 9 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bologna 1-0 and lost to Brighton 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 13L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersAtalanta5
Bologna3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Doveri has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atalanta have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Bologna 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atalanta have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atalanta player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
