Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico-MG to win against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Atletico-MG currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 36 points from 25 matches. Their recent form includes two wins and two draws in the last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they seek to climb the table. With 32 goals scored and only 30 conceded, Atletico-MG has a positive goal difference of 2, reflecting a balanced attack and defence. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc struggles significantly this season, languishing at the bottom of the table in 20th place with just 14 points from 24 matches. Their performance has been disappointing, marked by only two wins and a goal difference of -24, having conceded 49 goals while scoring just 25. Their form in the last five matches shows one win, two draws, and two losses, indicating ongoing issues that have hindered their ability to secure points. The model suggests a win probability of 65% for Atletico-MG, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that if Chapecoense-sc can exploit any defensive lapses from Atletico-MG, they might be able to snatch a goal. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 27% of matches. Chapecoense-sc average 1.0 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Atletico-MG have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Atletico-MG win as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico-MG clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Atletico-MG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 4.80 | 8.30 | 1.68 | 2.11 | 1.97 | 1.73 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.37 | 5.00 | 9.48 | 1.72 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.03 | 5.99 | 1.71 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.38 | 4.96 | 8.45 | 1.72 | 2.17 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 4.90 | 8.00 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chapecoense-sc leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-SC, Atletico-MG has won 2 times, there have been 5 draws, and Chapecoense-SC has won 3 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three draws and multiple one-goal margins. Notably, there have been some higher-scoring games, such as the 4-0 victory for Atletico-MG in April 2026. However, neither side has dominated the other, as the wins are relatively evenly spread, with the last victory for Atletico-MG over Chapecoense-SC occurring in July 2019.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 36 | LWDWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico-MG have won 10 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atletico-MG 2-1 and beat Atletico-MG 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 13L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 3-1 and lost to Cruzeiro 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 19L from the last 42 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico-MG
No reported absences
Chapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Raphael Claus has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Raphael Claus to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atletico-MG have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico-MG have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico-MG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
