Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 6th in the Serie A standings, Cruzeiro has had a solid season with 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses across 26 matches. They have scored 38 goals while conceding 37, leading to a goal difference of +1. Despite some recent inconsistency, their overall performance suggests they are a competitive side, particularly against teams lower in the table. On the other hand, Vitoria sits at 14th place with 29 points from 25 matches, having recorded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses. Their goal difference of -13 indicates struggles defensively, having conceded 37 goals against only 24 scored. Vitoria's recent form has been particularly concerning, with just one win in their last five matches, highlighting their difficulties in securing points. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Cruzeiro, with Vitoria's chances at around 20%. While Cruzeiro's form and standing suggest a likely victory, Vitoria could pose a challenge if they manage to improve their defensive performance. For a detailed explanation of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vitoria manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.34 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.91 | 3.22 | 2.38 | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 3.08 | 3.32 | 2.43 | 2.03 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.09 | 2.36 | 2.02 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.00 | 3.32 | 2.45 | 2.01 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.42 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Cruzeiro, Cruzeiro has won 6 times, Vitoria has won once, and there have been 3 draws. This record highlights a clear advantage for Cruzeiro, especially with three of their victories being by a margin of two goals or more, indicating some one-sided encounters. The scorelines suggest that while there have been a few close matches, such as the 2-2 draws, the overall trend leans towards Cruzeiro's dominance. Vitoria's last win in this fixture dates back to November 2021, which further emphasizes the challenge they face against Cruzeiro historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 29 | LLWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 15 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vasco DA Gama 0-2 and lost to Bahia 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 17L from the last 44 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atletico-MG 2-1 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 15D 9L from the last 44 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVitoria
No reported absences
Cruzeiro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Matheus Delgado Candancan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Matheus Delgado Candancan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
