Gremio vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Palmeiras
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win this match against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Palmeiras currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a strong season with 15 wins from 25 matches. Their impressive goal difference of +24 reflects a potent attack, having scored 45 goals while conceding only 21. The team’s recent form, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicates a solid and consistent performance as they continue to challenge for the top position. Gremio, on the other hand, is positioned 15th in the league, having played 24 matches with only 7 wins. Their goal difference of -5 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded more goals than they have scored. Recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, pointing to struggles in both scoring and maintaining defensive stability. This has made it challenging for them to climb the league table and secure a more comfortable position. The model output indicates a win probability of around 65% for Palmeiras, with a projected score of 2-0. However, one caveat to consider is Gremio's home advantage, which could impact the match dynamics. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 0.98 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.92 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
| 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 4.09 | 3.69 | 1.93 | 1.98 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 3.74 | 3.29 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.04 | 3.65 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.90 | 1.76 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.98 | 1.98 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Palmeiras, Palmeiras has won 7 times, while Gremio has secured 2 victories and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Palmeiras to dominate, with several narrow wins for Gremio, such as their 3-2 victory in November 2025. However, Palmeiras has also recorded heavier victories, including a 4-1 win in May 2023 and multiple 2-0 results. Gremio's last win against Palmeiras was in September 2023, suggesting they have struggled to consistently overcome their rivals in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 14 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Internacional 3-1 and beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 12L from the last 44 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 12 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Palmeiras 0-0 and drew with Santos 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 28W 11D 3L from the last 42 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGremio3-4-3Confirmed
Palmeiras4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGremio
No reported absences
Palmeiras
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
