Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Paranaense to win this match against Bahia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atletico Paranaense currently sits in third place in the Serie A standings with 45 points from 26 matches, showcasing a solid overall performance this season. However, their recent form has been mixed, with only one win in their last five matches. Despite this, their goal difference of +10 indicates a generally effective attack and a capable defence. Bahia, positioned fifth with 43 points, has been in impressive form, going unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. Their offensive output is commendable, with 40 goals scored, though they have conceded 32, resulting in a goal difference of +8. This suggests that while they can score, their defence may be vulnerable, especially against a team like Atletico Paranaense. In terms of match prediction, the model gives Atletico Paranaense a win probability of around 55%, suggesting a competitive contest. One key market to watch is the goal line, as both teams have shown the ability to score. However, the recent form of Atletico Paranaense raises concerns; if they fail to find their rhythm, they could struggle against a resilient Bahia side. The full method employed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team involves an in-house model analysing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Atletico Paranaense have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico Paranaense clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Paranaense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.10 | 3.34 | 3.34 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.18 | 3.48 | 3.41 | 1.92 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.06 | 1.90 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.17 | 3.44 | 3.44 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bahia leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Atletico Paranaense and Bahia, Bahia leads with 5 wins, while Atletico Paranaense has 3 victories and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Bahia achieving some significant wins, including a 3-0 victory in April 2026. While there have been a couple of narrow wins, such as Atletico Paranaense's 2-1 results, the overall trend shows Bahia has been more successful in this matchup recently. The most recent draw occurred in November 2024, highlighting a competitive edge for Bahia in these encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico Paranaense have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico Paranaense 3-3 and beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 12L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bahia 2-3 and beat Vitoria 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 9D 9L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico Paranaense
No reported absences
Bahia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Anderson Daronco has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Anderson Daronco to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atletico Paranaense have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Bahia 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Paranaense have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Paranaense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
