Corinthians vs Fluminense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Corinthians vs Fluminense
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win this match against Corinthians, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fluminense currently sits in fourth place and has had a strong season with 12 wins from 26 matches, contributing to a total of 45 points. Their goal-scoring ability is reflected in their 40 goals this season, showcasing a solid offensive performance. Additionally, they have shown consistency in their recent form, going unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes three wins and two draws. Corinthians, on the other hand, are positioned 11th in the standings with 32 points from 25 matches. Their record of eight wins, eight draws, and nine losses indicates a challenging season. Recently, they have struggled for form, managing only one win in their last five matches, which includes three losses. Their goal difference of just +1 suggests they have not been particularly prolific in front of goal, and their defensive record has also been shaky, conceding 25 goals. The model suggests that Fluminense has a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Corinthians' home advantage, which could influence the match outcome. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 46% of matches. Fluminense average 1.4 goals per game.
Corinthians manage games at home, conceding just 0.78 goals per match. Fluminense score 1.40 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Corinthians win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Corinthians clean sheets, in line with their 46% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Corinthians vs Fluminense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.11 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.54 | 2.02 | 1.69 | |
| 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.10 | 1.73 | |
| 2.19 | 3.20 | 3.79 | 2.48 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 2.99 | 3.42 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.71 | 2.44 | 1.58 | 2.02 | 1.71 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.47 | 1.57 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.13 | 3.60 | 2.28 | 1.54 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Corinthians leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Corinthians and Fluminense, Corinthians has won 4 times, Fluminense has also won 3 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins. Notably, the matches have featured a mix of low and high-scoring outcomes, including a 3-3 draw and a 3-0 win for Corinthians. The most recent win for Fluminense occurred in 2026, suggesting a balanced contest overall, with neither side dominating the other historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 32 | LLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthians have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Santos 0-1 and beat Rosario Central 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 11L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fluminense have won 4 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Atletico Paranaense 3-3 and drew with Independ. Rivadavia 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 16D 8L from the last 43 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCorinthians
No reported absences
Fluminense
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ramon Abatti has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Ramon Abatti to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Corinthians have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Fluminense 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 0.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
