Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas, projecting a scoreline of 1-0 against Atletico San Luis. Chivas currently sit in 10th place in the Liga MX standings, having secured 7 points from their first four matches with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their season has seen them score 3 goals while conceding the same amount, indicating a balanced performance thus far. With two wins in their last five matches, they show a degree of resilience that could be pivotal in this matchup. Atletico San Luis, on the other hand, finds themselves struggling in 16th position with only 2 points from four games, resulting from 2 draws and 2 losses. Their goal difference of -4, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded, highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Chivas may exploit. The team has yet to secure a victory this season, and their recent form of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses reflects ongoing challenges. The model gives Chivas a win probability of around 60%, while Atletico San Luis has a lower chance of about 20%. It’s important to note that while the data supports Chivas as the favourite, unexpected events such as defensive errors or an off-day for key players could influence the outcome. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, which uses expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.30 | 3.85 | 1.74 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.78 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 4.19 | 3.89 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 3.76 | 3.47 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.09 | 3.65 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 3.95 | 3.65 | 1.78 | 1.66 | 2.15 | 1.56 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 4.25 | 3.80 | 1.78 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.82 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 1.61 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Atletico San Luis and Guadalajara Chivas stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 matches ending in draws. This balance indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams capable of securing victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, including four matches decided by a single goal, alongside several high-scoring encounters, such as Chivas' 4-3 win. Notably, both teams have had recent successes against each other, suggesting that neither side has a distinct upper hand historically. The last draw occurred in January 2023, highlighting a tendency towards decisive outcomes in their meetings.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 3 |  Toluca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  Club Tijuana | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico San Luis have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico San Luis 1-1 and drew with Atletico San Luis 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 13L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 9 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 0-3 and drew with CF Pachuca 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 7L from the last 34 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAtletico San Luis5-4-1Confirmed
Guadalajara Chivas3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico San Luis
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Camacho Peregrina has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atletico San Luis have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 8.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
