Puebla vs Toluca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Puebla vs Toluca
Match Preview
The model favours Toluca to win this match against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Toluca currently sits in second place in the league standings, having played five matches this season and accumulated 10 points with three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their goal difference of +4 is bolstered by a solid attacking performance, scoring eight goals while conceding only four. This form suggests a balanced team that can both defend well and create scoring opportunities. Puebla, on the other hand, is positioned eighth with seven points from four matches, featuring two wins, one draw, and one loss. While they have managed to score six goals, their defensive record shows some vulnerabilities, having conceded five. Their recent form, with one win, one draw, and three losses in the last five matches, indicates a struggle to find consistency, which could be a concern heading into this matchup. According to the model, Toluca has a win probability of approximately 58%, with the projected scoreline of 2-1 reflecting their stronger season performance. However, Puebla's home advantage could pose a challenge for Toluca, especially if they can capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Toluca have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Toluca win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Toluca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Puebla vs Toluca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.64 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 4.55 | 4.00 | 1.64 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.62 | 1.45 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 4.68 | 4.15 | 1.67 | 1.58 | 2.39 | — | — | |
| 4.10 | 3.69 | 1.58 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.51 | 4.00 | 1.66 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.64 | 1.52 | 2.38 | 1.52 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 4.80 | 4.05 | 1.65 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toluca leads 5-1)In their last 10 encounters, Puebla has won 1 match, drawn 4, and lost 5 to Toluca. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Toluca has had the upper hand with several decisive victories, including a 5-0 win. The matches have often been closely contested, with four draws showcasing the potential for tightly fought games. Puebla's last win against Toluca came in November 2023, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success against this opponent. Overall, while there are instances of tight results, Toluca's recent dominance is evident in the head-to-head record.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Toluca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 3 |  Club Tijuana | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 4 |  Atlas | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 6 |  Club Queretaro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Puebla | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 | LWWDL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 | DWLLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | DLLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPuebla have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santos Laguna 3-2 and beat Tlaxcala 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 15L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toluca have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Club Queretaro 1-2 and drew with Atlante FC 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 11L from the last 37 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Toluca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Puebla have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Toluca 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toluca have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 6.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toluca player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
