Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Match Preview
The model favours Gaziantep FK to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Gaziantep currently sits in 10th place, just above Başakşehir, having accumulated 8 points from their six matches. Their performance has been slightly more consistent, with two wins, two draws, and two losses, suggesting a level of resilience. Notably, they have a balanced goal difference of zero, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded, indicating they are capable of both scoring and defending effectively. In contrast, Başakşehir finds themselves in 12th place with 7 points, reflecting a season that has been challenging so far. Their record of two wins, one draw, and three losses shows inconsistency, and they have conceded one more goal than they have scored. Their recent form, with only one win in their last five matches, highlights struggles that could affect their confidence heading into this fixture. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Gaziantep FK, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat for Gaziantep could be their tendency to draw matches, which might prevent them from securing all three points if they cannot convert chances into goals. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, employing an in-house model that analyses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Başakşehir have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Başakşehir clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Başakşehir are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 4.15 | 4.80 | 1.58 | 2.29 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 4.23 | 4.89 | 1.60 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.65 | 4.14 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.67 | 4.32 | 5.00 | 1.64 | 2.38 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.50 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Başakşehir leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK, Başakşehir has won 6 times, while Gaziantep FK has secured 3 victories, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines reveal a tendency for Başakşehir to dominate, with several heavy wins, including a notable 5-1 victory. While Gaziantep FK has managed to win three matches, their last victory came in 2024, indicating a struggle against Başakşehir in recent encounters. The overall pattern suggests that Başakşehir has a stronger head-to-head record, particularly marked by their ability to achieve comfortable wins.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 14 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 13 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | LLDWL |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 3 | LLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBaşakşehir have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Başakşehir 4-0 and lost to Başakşehir 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 8L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gaziantep FK have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gaziantep FK 2-0 and beat Göztepe 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 12L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBaşakşehir
No reported absences
Gaziantep FK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Sen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Sen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Başakşehir have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Gaziantep FK 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Başakşehir have generated 2.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Başakşehir player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
