Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Match Preview
The model favours Fenerbahçe to win against Alanyaspor, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fenerbahçe currently sits in 6th place in the Süper Lig standings with 10 points from 6 matches. Their season has been marked by a strong goal-scoring ability, netting 16 goals, while their defence has been solid, conceding only 6. With two wins in their last five matches, Fenerbahçe is looking to build momentum as they aim to climb higher in the league. On the other hand, Alanyaspor is just ahead in 5th place with 11 points, having played the same number of matches. They have also shown resilience this season, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their recent form includes three wins from their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge. However, they may need to improve their goal difference to solidify their standing. The model gives Fenerbahçe a win probability of around 55%, while Alanyaspor's chances sit at approximately 25%, with a draw at 20%. A key market to watch is Fenerbahçe's home advantage, which typically boosts their performance. However, if Alanyaspor maintains their current form and capitalises on any defensive lapses from Fenerbahçe, they could pose a significant threat. The full prediction method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model, analysing expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Fenerbahçe have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Fenerbahçe win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fenerbahçe clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Fenerbahçe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.28 | 5.40 | 9.20 | 1.56 | 2.33 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 1.30 | 5.83 | 9.54 | 1.57 | 2.48 | — | — | |
| 1.26 | 4.82 | 7.14 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.28 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.31 | 5.95 | 10.10 | 1.62 | 2.42 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 1.31 | 5.20 | 8.50 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.25 | 9.50 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fenerbahçe leads 8-0)Fenerbahçe has a dominant head-to-head record against Alanyaspor, winning 8 out of the last 10 matches, with 2 draws and no wins for Alanyaspor. The scorelines indicate a lopsided rivalry, as Fenerbahçe has not only secured victories but often by significant margins, including two matches ending 5-0 and 4-2. While there were two draws, most contests have featured Fenerbahçe scoring multiple goals, suggesting a clear upper hand. Alanyaspor has not won against Fenerbahçe in this sample, highlighting a challenging historical matchup for them.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 14 | DWWDW |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 13 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DWDWL |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 3 | LLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFenerbahçe have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Fenerbahçe 8-0 and drew with Fenerbahçe 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 7D 6L from the last 37 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alanyaspor have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Alanyaspor 1-2 and beat Rizespor 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
3 playersFenerbahçe2
Alanyaspor1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
C. Altay has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by C. Altay to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fenerbahçe have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Alanyaspor 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fenerbahçe have generated 2.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fenerbahçe player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
