Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Match Preview
The model favours Kasımpaşa to win against Samsunspor, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kasımpaşa currently sits in 8th place in the Süper Lig, having played six matches with an unbeaten record of two wins and four draws. Their goal difference of +2 underscores a solid defensive performance, having conceded only five goals while scoring seven. The team's recent form has been steady, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating a resilience that could prove crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, Samsunspor is struggling in 16th place, with just one win, one draw, and four losses from their six matches. With a goal difference of -6, they have conceded 12 goals while managing to score only six. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, as they have lost four consecutive matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives Kasımpaşa a win probability of approximately 60%, suggesting they are favoured to secure the three points. However, a potential caveat is that if Samsunspor can exploit Kasımpaşa's defensive vulnerabilities, they could pull off a surprise. For a deeper understanding of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Kasımpaşa manage games at home, conceding just 1.13 goals per match. Samsunspor score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Kasımpaşa have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kasımpaşa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.44 | 3.34 | 2.74 | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.90 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.45 | 2.84 | 2.03 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.33 | 3.02 | 2.56 | 1.99 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.54 | 3.48 | 2.86 | 2.03 | 1.86 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor stands at 3 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 draw, and 3 wins for Samsunspor over their last 7 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal success in terms of wins. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, such as the 0-0 draw and a few narrow victories, alongside a notable 4-1 win for Samsunspor. Kasımpaşa's last two victories came by a margin of 2 goals or less, while Samsunspor's win in 2024 was a significant 4-1 result, showcasing the potential for both teams to dominate on their day.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 14 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 13 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DWDWL |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 3 | LLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKasımpaşa have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 and drew with Kasımpaşa 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 8L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Samsunspor have won 9 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Erzurumspor FK 1-0 and lost to Kocaelispor 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 12L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersKasımpaşa3
Samsunspor2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Tokail has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Tokail to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kasımpaşa have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Samsunspor 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kasımpaşa have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 2.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kasımpaşa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
