Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Bahia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flamengo currently sits at the top of the Serie A standings, having secured 60 points from 28 matches with an impressive record of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. Their goal difference of +32 highlights their strong attacking and defensive capabilities, as they have scored 55 goals while conceding only 23. Flamengo's recent form, including four wins in their last five matches, demonstrates their consistency and ability to perform under pressure. On the other hand, Bahia is performing well this season, positioned fifth with 46 points. They have recorded 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, and their goal difference of +8 indicates a solid but less dominant performance compared to Flamengo. However, Bahia's form has seen a positive shift recently, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their potential to challenge stronger opponents. According to the model, Flamengo has a win probability of 55% for this match, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that Bahia's home advantage could play a crucial role, as they have been strong at the Arena Fonte Nova. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.22 | 3.68 | 2.03 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.26 | 3.78 | 2.09 | 1.65 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.32 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.21 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.07 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 9-1)In the last 10 encounters between Bahia and Flamengo, Flamengo has won 9 times, while Bahia has secured only 1 victory, with no matches ending in a draw. This record indicates a dominant performance by Flamengo, as they have consistently managed to keep Bahia at bay, often winning by narrow margins, such as 1-0 in five instances. Bahia's sole win came in a tightly contested match with a score of 1-0 in 2025. Flamengo's victories have included a mix of close games and a notable 3-0 win, highlighting their overall control in this rivalry.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | 33 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | 30 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | 14 | 53 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 51 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 48 | LWWLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 | LLDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Mirassol 1-0 and beat Remo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 11L from the last 39 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flamengo have won 14 of their last 26 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Flamengo 0-0 and drew with Santos 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 33W 12D 6L from the last 51 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersBahia1
Flamengo4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Wilton Sampaio has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Flamengo 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
