Atletico-MG vs Coritiba Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico-MG to win against Coritiba, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atletico-MG currently sits in 7th place in the Serie A standings with 43 points from 28 matches, boasting a solid goal difference of +5. Their recent form has been relatively strong, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings, indicating a potential upward trajectory as they aim for a higher league finish. Coritiba, on the other hand, is positioned 9th with 38 points, having played the same number of matches as Atletico-MG. Their goal difference of -6 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 43 goals while scoring 37. Despite a mixed recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses, Coritiba will need to improve their consistency to challenge for points in this fixture. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Atletico-MG, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that Coritiba could exploit any lapses in Atletico-MG's defence, especially given their ability to score in recent matches. The full method of the prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as part of The Daily Punt Analysis Team's in-house model, which evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 26% of matches. Coritiba average 1.3 goals per game.
Atletico-MG manage games at home, conceding just 1.09 goals per match. Coritiba score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Atletico-MG have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Atletico-MG win as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico-MG clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Atletico-MG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.30 | 6.75 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 1.73 | |
| 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.45 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.49 | 4.43 | 6.96 | 1.88 | 1.96 | 1.97 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.10 | 7.50 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico-MG leads 6-3)Atletico-MG has won 6 of the last 10 encounters against Coritiba, while Coritiba has won 3 and 1 match ended in a draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories. Atletico-MG's wins include a 3-0 victory and a couple of 2-0 wins, suggesting they can secure heavier wins when in form. Coritiba's recent victories, including a 2-0 win in April 2026 and a 2-1 win in October 2023, demonstrate their capability to challenge Atletico-MG. The last time Coritiba lost by more than one goal was in 2017, indicating they have become more competitive in recent matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 38 | LLDLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico-MG have won 13 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Bragantino 1-0 and drew with Chapecoense-sc 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 12D 14L from the last 46 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Coritiba have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Coritiba 5-0 and beat Remo 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 10L from the last 34 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico-MG
No reported absences
Coritiba
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atletico-MG have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Coritiba 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico-MG have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico-MG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
