Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Botafogo to win against Chapecoense with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Botafogo currently sits in 12th place in the Serie A standings, having collected 35 points from 28 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses. Key to their performance is their goal difference of -4, indicating they have struggled defensively, conceding 45 goals while scoring 41. However, they have shown glimpses of potential, particularly in their attacking play. On the other hand, Chapecoense finds itself at the bottom of the table in 20th position, with only 18 points from 27 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses highlights their ongoing struggles this season. With a goal difference of -24, they have conceded 53 goals while scoring just 29, reflecting significant defensive weaknesses. Their recent form shows only one win in their last five matches, which compounds their challenges as they look to climb out of the relegation zone. According to the model, Botafogo has a higher win probability, which contributes to the projected score of 2-1. One key market stat to note is the likelihood of Botafogo securing the three points at home. However, a potential caveat is that if Chapecoense can tighten their defense and capitalize on any mistakes from Botafogo, they could make this match more competitive than expected. The full method used to reach this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Botafogo win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Botafogo clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.75 | 6.90 | 1.57 | 2.31 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.43 | 4.91 | 7.13 | 1.61 | 2.37 | 1.76 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 4.70 | 7.20 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.54 | 2.26 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Chapecoense-SC, Botafogo has won 7 times, with 1 draw and 2 victories for Chapecoense-SC. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for Botafogo, with several narrow wins, such as 1-0 and 2-1, suggesting they often secure close victories. While Chapecoense-SC managed to win 2-0 in their most recent encounter, their last win before that was in 2016, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this matchup. The overall pattern reflects Botafogo's dominance, particularly in recent years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 35 | LLWDD |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 10 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vasco DA Gama 1-2 and beat Gremio 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 11D 16L from the last 45 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 5 of their last 27 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 16. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 4-0 and drew with Atletico Nacional 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 14D 22L from the last 49 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBotafogo
No reported absences
Chapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
