Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Paranaense to win against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Atletico Paranaense currently sits in third place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a strong season with 14 wins from 28 matches. Their goal difference of +11 indicates a solid defensive record, having conceded only 32 goals while scoring 43. With two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, they are maintaining competitive form as they push for a top position. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc struggles at the bottom of the table, currently ranked 20th with only 18 points from 27 games. Their season has been challenging, with just three wins and a goal difference of -24, having conceded 53 goals. Their recent form reflects this difficulty, recording only one win in their last five matches, which adds to the pressure they face in this fixture. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 70% in favour of Atletico Paranaense, with the likelihood of a draw around 20%. While the data supports Atletico's superior position, any slip-up in concentration or an unexpected performance from Chapecoense could alter the outcome. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Chapecoense-sc manage games at home, conceding just 1.53 goals per match. Atletico Paranaense score 1.54 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Atletico Paranaense have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Paranaense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.58 | 3.44 | 1.98 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 3.77 | 3.50 | 2.01 | 1.92 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 3.17 | 3.02 | 1.99 | 1.94 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.70 | 3.55 | 2.04 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
Betano | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Paranaense leads 3-1)In the last 10 matches between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense, Chapecoense-sc has won 1, drawn 6, and Atletico Paranaense has won 3. The results reveal a tendency for tightly contested matches, with 60% of the fixtures ending in draws. While Atletico Paranaense has a slight edge in victories, the scorelines indicate a mix of narrow wins and draws, with only one match featuring a heavy win, a 5-1 result in favor of Atletico Paranaense. Chapecoense-sc's last win against Atletico Paranaense was in 2018, highlighting a challenge in overcoming this opponent historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-sc have won 8 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 1-2 and beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 14D 22L from the last 49 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Atletico Paranaense have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Coritiba 3-3 and lost to Cruzeiro 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 11D 12L from the last 41 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersChapecoense-sc6
Atletico Paranaense2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Wilton Sampaio has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Chapecoense-sc have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Atletico Paranaense 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Paranaense have generated 1.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Paranaense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
