Coritiba vs Botafogo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Botafogo
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win this match against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Coritiba currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a balanced performance with 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses across 28 matches. Their goal difference of -6 indicates some defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 37 goals this season, reflecting a moderate attacking threat. On the other hand, Botafogo is positioned 12th, with a record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses. They have scored 41 goals, slightly more than Coritiba, but their defensive record has been a concern, conceding 45 goals. Both teams have struggled for consistency in recent matches, with Botafogo only securing one victory in their last five games, which may impact their confidence going into this fixture. According to the model, Coritiba has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of both teams scoring, which could be high given their attacking outputs. However, Coritiba's defensive issues could lead to a surprise result if they fail to tighten up at the back. The full predictive method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Coritiba have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Coritiba are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Botafogo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.59 | 3.46 | 2.50 | 1.69 | 2.09 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.70 | 3.56 | 2.61 | 1.74 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 2.43 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 1.72 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.67 | 3.57 | 2.58 | 1.74 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.45 | 2.60 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 6-1)In the last ten matches between Coritiba and Botafogo, Botafogo has won 6 times, Coritiba has won once, and there have been 3 draws. This record highlights a clear advantage for Botafogo, who have frequently outscored Coritiba, including a significant 4-1 victory in July 2023. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided matches, with four encounters ending in draws, suggesting moments of parity. Coritiba's lone win came in May 2022, showing they have struggled to secure victories against Botafogo in recent years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 38 | LLDLW |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 35 | LLWDD |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Coritiba 3-3 and beat Coritiba 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 10L from the last 34 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Mirassol 2-0 and lost to Flamengo 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 11D 16L from the last 45 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersCoritiba8
Botafogo2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Matheus Delgado Candancan has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Botafogo 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Coritiba have generated 0.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Coritiba player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
