Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favors Sao Paulo to win against Vasco DA Gama, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sao Paulo currently sits in 10th place with 36 points from 28 matches, having recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses. Their goal difference stands at a slim +1, with 33 goals scored and 32 conceded. However, their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, which includes three losses. On the other hand, Vasco DA Gama is positioned 16th with 31 points from 27 games. They have achieved 8 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, resulting in a goal difference of -7, having scored 34 goals and conceded 41. Their recent form has been more encouraging, as they have secured three wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential for improvement as they fight to avoid relegation. The model gives Sao Paulo a win probability of approximately 55%, while Vasco DA Gama has a 25% chance of winning. The key market percentage suggests a significant leaning towards Sao Paulo, but one caveat is their inconsistent form, which could lead to an upset. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of matches. Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals per game.
Sao Paulo manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.39 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Sao Paulo have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sao Paulo clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Sao Paulo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.99 | 3.38 | 3.62 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 5-3)In the last 10 encounters between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama, Sao Paulo has won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama has secured 3 victories, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested. Notably, there have been a mix of narrow wins and a few heavy victories, such as Sao Paulo's 4-1 win in 2024. The most recent draw, a 0-0 stalemate in October 2023, highlights that both teams can struggle to find the net against each other. Vasco DA Gama last won against Sao Paulo in April 2026, indicating a recent shift in momentum.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 35 | DWWWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSao Paulo have won 15 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vitoria 2-1 and lost to Santos 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 11D 15L from the last 46 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 7 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Botafogo 1-2 and beat Gremio 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 15D 14L from the last 49 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSao Paulo
No reported absences
Vasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sao Paulo have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sao Paulo have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sao Paulo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
