Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Cruzeiro has been performing well this season, boasting 13 wins from 28 matches. Their goal difference of +2, with 42 goals scored and 40 conceded, highlights a balanced attacking and defensive approach. Despite some recent inconsistency, they remain in the hunt for a strong finish. On the other hand, Gremio finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting 17th in the standings. With only 7 wins from 28 games, their goal difference of -8 indicates struggles on both ends of the pitch, having scored 30 goals while conceding 38. Their recent form, which includes just one win in their last five matches, could further complicate their efforts to climb out of the relegation zone. The model shows a win probability of around 60% for Cruzeiro, indicating a solid chance for them to secure three points. However, Gremio's desperate need for points could lead to a more aggressive game plan that might catch Cruzeiro off guard. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 1.02 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.89 | 3.46 | 2.27 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.84 | 3.52 | 2.43 | 1.83 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.98 | 3.57 | 2.34 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Cruzeiro, Cruzeiro has the upper hand with 5 wins, while Gremio has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Cruzeiro achieving some convincing victories, including a 4-1 win, while Gremio's wins have been narrower, with a maximum margin of 3 goals in their 3-1 victory. The matches also show a tendency for low-scoring draws, as seen in the 1-1 results. Notably, Gremio has not defeated Cruzeiro in their last four league meetings, indicating a recent struggle against their rivals.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | 33 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | 30 | 63 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | 14 | 53 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 51 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 48 | LWWLW |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 31 | DDDLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 | LLDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 15 of their last 28 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Internacional 1-1 and drew with Palmeiras 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 18D 15L from the last 51 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 9 of their last 25 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 4-2 and beat Vitoria 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 15D 11L from the last 49 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersGremio3
Cruzeiro5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Joao Vitor Gobi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Joao Vitor Gobi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
