Fluminense vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fluminense currently sits in 4th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 48 points from 28 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid home record, and they have shown resilience, particularly in their recent form, winning three of their last five matches. Key to their success has been their ability to score, with 44 goals this season, highlighting a potent attack. Santos, on the other hand, is positioned 8th with 41 points from the same number of matches. While they have had a commendable season, their form has been slightly less consistent compared to Fluminense, with four wins in their last five matches. However, they have struggled defensively at times, conceding 41 goals, which may become a critical factor in their upcoming match against a high-scoring opponent. The model suggests a win probability of around 55% for Fluminense and notes a key market percentage favoring them as well. A potential concern for Fluminense could be their recent inconsistency, as they have lost two of their last five matches. For a detailed breakdown of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Fluminense manage games at home, conceding just 1.04 goals per match. Santos score 1.53 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs Santos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.23 | 3.34 | 3.05 | 1.97 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.30 | 3.44 | 3.15 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 2.35 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fluminense leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Fluminense and Santos, Fluminense has won 5 times, drawn 4, and Santos has won just once. This record indicates a strong performance from Fluminense, particularly in recent encounters, where they have secured three victories and one draw in the last four matches. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow wins, with several matches ending 1-0, and a notable 3-0 victory for Fluminense. Santos' only win in this stretch came over two years ago, highlighting their struggles against Fluminense in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 61 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 | WDWDD |
| 3 | Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 50 | DWDLD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 48 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 42 | LDWWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 18 of their last 27 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Coritiba 4-0 and beat Platense 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 16D 10L from the last 49 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos have won 8 of their last 25 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Santos 1-2 and beat Remo 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 16D 13L from the last 49 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFluminense
No reported absences
Santos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Santos 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.21 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
