Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win this match against Sichuan Jiuniu, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 7th in the league, Beijing Guoan has shown strong form recently, recording four wins and one draw in their last five matches. With a total of 22 points from 18 games, they have scored 30 goals while conceding 24, resulting in a positive goal difference of 6. This season, their attacking capabilities have been a significant factor in their performance. On the other hand, Sichuan Jiuniu sits in 10th place with 20 points from 19 matches. Their recent form has been less encouraging, with only one win in their last five games, alongside three losses. They have scored 25 goals but have also conceded 33, leaving them with a negative goal difference of -8. This discrepancy in goal difference and overall performance suggests they have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season. The model gives Beijing Guoan a win probability of approximately 55%, reflecting their superior form and position in the standings. A key market percentage indicates that they are favoured to win by at least one goal. However, if Sichuan Jiuniu manages to improve their defensive solidity and capitalise on any mistakes, they could pose a threat. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Beijing Guoan clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.33 | 5.10 | 7.20 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 1.33 | 5.20 | 7.40 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.37 | 5.66 | 7.31 | 1.36 | 3.18 | — | — | |
| 1.31 | 4.39 | 5.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.36 | 5.43 | 7.70 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.36 | 5.20 | 6.75 | 1.33 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.37 | 5.00 | 6.70 | 1.37 | 2.85 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 1.35 | 5.20 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.58 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Sichuan Jiuniu leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu stands at 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 draw, and 3 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu over the last 6 matches. The results show a competitive rivalry, with three of the six matches being decided by a single goal, indicating a tendency for tight contests. Sichuan Jiuniu has the upper hand with three victories, while Beijing Guoan's two wins include one comfortable 3-1 win. The most recent match-up in April 2026 saw Beijing Guoan claim a narrow victory, suggesting potential shifts in momentum.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 45 | LDDDD |
| 2 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 32 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 30 | WWLLW |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 29 | WWDDW |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 17 | LWWWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 and beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 and lost to Yunnan Yukun 4-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 18L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Sichuan Jiuniu
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Sichuan Jiuniu 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 2.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.