Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction, Tips & Odds
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island
Match Preview
The model favours Henan Jianye to win against Qingdao Youth Island, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Henan Jianye currently sits in 13th place in the league, having played 18 matches this season with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 23, resulting in a neutral goal difference. Recent form shows they have won 2 of their last 5 matches, which indicates a slight upward trend as they seek to improve their standing. In contrast, Qingdao Youth Island is positioned 4th, with 20 matches played and a record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses. They have netted 24 goals while allowing 29, leading to a goal difference of -5. Their last 5 matches reflect a mixed performance, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. While they have been competitive this season, their inability to convert draws into wins could be a concern as they face a struggling Henan. The model gives Henan Jianye a win probability of around 55%, with the projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if Qingdao can tighten their defence and convert set pieces effectively, they could pose a significant challenge. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Henan Jianye have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Henan Jianye clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Henan Jianye are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.65 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 1.63 | 3.70 | 5.10 | 1.72 | 2.06 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.68 | 3.77 | 5.47 | 1.75 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.33 | 4.03 | 1.78 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.68 | 3.82 | 5.25 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.90 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.90 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 1.71 | 2.02 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Qingdao Youth Island leads 2-1)In the last five matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island, the record stands at 1 win for Henan Jianye, 2 draws, and 2 wins for Qingdao Youth Island. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with no team consistently dominating; the matches have featured tight contests, including two draws and a narrow 1-0 victory for Henan Jianye. Both teams have experienced close matches, with the largest margin being just two goals. Notably, Henan Jianye's last victory came over a year ago, suggesting a slight edge for Qingdao Youth Island in recent encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 45 | LDDDD |
| 2 | Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 32 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 30 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 29 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Henan Jianye | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 23 | DDWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 17 | LWWWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHenan Jianye have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 and drew with Dalian Zhixing 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 10L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Qingdao Youth Island have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shenyang Urban 0-1 and lost to Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 13D 7L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHenan Jianye4-2-3-1Confirmed
Qingdao Youth Island4-4-1-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHenan Jianye
No reported absences
Qingdao Youth Island
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Henan Jianye have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Qingdao Youth Island 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Henan Jianye have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Henan Jianye player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
