Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bologna vs Sassuolo
Match Preview
The model favours Bologna to win against Sassuolo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bologna enters this match positioned 11th in the league, with a solid record from their last five matches, securing two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their recent form suggests a team that can bounce back and find the net effectively, which will be crucial in their opening match of the season. Sassuolo, on the other hand, finds themselves in 14th place after one match, where they suffered a defeat. Their last five games show a lack of consistency, with only one win and a series of disappointing results. This struggle could impact their confidence, especially as they face a Bologna side that is eager to start the season positively. According to the model, Bologna has a strong chance of winning, with a win probability favouring them significantly. However, a caveat to consider is that Sassuolo could surprise if they manage to adjust their tactics and improve their defensive solidity. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bologna manage games at home, conceding just 1.38 goals per match. Sassuolo score 1.23 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Bologna have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bologna clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bologna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bologna vs Sassuolo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.96 | 3.50 | 4.15 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.73 | 1.99 | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.97 | 3.49 | 4.26 | 1.95 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 1.98 | 3.08 | 3.34 | 2.07 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.00 | 3.58 | 4.24 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.73 | 2.01 | |
| 1.89 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.98 | 1.81 | 1.82 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.90 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bologna leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Bologna and Sassuolo, Bologna has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and Sassuolo has claimed victory on 2 occasions. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, highlighting a tendency for closely contested games. Bologna has secured some heavier wins, including a notable 4-2 victory and two 3-0 triumphs, while Sassuolo's wins have been less frequent and included a 3-1 result. The last time Sassuolo won against Bologna was in May 2022, suggesting that Bologna has had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWL |
| 15 | Bologna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBologna have won 5 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bologna 0-1 and lost to Bologna 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 13L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atalanta 2-1 and lost to FC Augsburg 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 14L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBologna4-2-3-1Confirmed
Sassuolo4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersBologna2
Sassuolo6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Di Bello has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bologna have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Sassuolo 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bologna have generated 1.08 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bologna player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
