Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Gremio


Match Preview
The model favours Botafogo to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Botafogo currently sits in 12th place with 22 points from 17 matches, showing a balanced goal difference of zero. Their recent form has been encouraging, with three wins in their last five matches. This indicates a positive trend as they aim to climb the table, especially given their ability to score the same number of goals as they concede. On the other hand, Gremio is positioned 16th with 21 points from 18 matches, struggling to find consistency this season. Their goal tally of 20 goals scored against 23 conceded highlights a lack of offensive power, which has contributed to their lower standing. While they have secured two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests challenges in both attack and defense. The model's output indicates a win probability favouring Botafogo, with the home side likely to secure the three points. However, the caveat is that Gremio could exploit any defensive lapses, given their need for points to avoid relegation. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-3)



















Gremio hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 2 draws and 3 Botafogo wins. The record points to a tie Gremio have controlled for years, though the draws show Botafogo have at times kept it tight.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD | |
| 2 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW | |
| 3 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD | |
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD | |
| 5 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL | |
| 6 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL | |
| 7 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 29 | WDWLD | |
| 16 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 21 | LLWDL | |
| 18 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL | |
| 19 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD | |
| 20 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Botafogo 0-0 and beat Botafogo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 10L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Gremio have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gremio 3-2 and lost to Mirassol 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 12D 10L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Botafogo
No reported absences
Gremio
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.





