Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds

Botafogo vs Gremio

Serie ARegular Season - 21
Botafogo
#7 · Serie A
WDWLW
VS
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Gremio
#16 · Serie A
LLWLW

Match Preview

The model favours Botafogo to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Botafogo currently sits in 12th place with 22 points from 17 matches, showing a balanced goal difference of zero. Their recent form has been encouraging, with three wins in their last five matches. This indicates a positive trend as they aim to climb the table, especially given their ability to score the same number of goals as they concede. On the other hand, Gremio is positioned 16th with 21 points from 18 matches, struggling to find consistency this season. Their goal tally of 20 goals scored against 23 conceded highlights a lack of offensive power, which has contributed to their lower standing. While they have secured two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests challenges in both attack and defense. The model's output indicates a win probability favouring Botafogo, with the home side likely to secure the three points. However, the caveat is that Gremio could exploit any defensive lapses, given their need for points to avoid relegation. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-3)
3 Botafogo2 Draw5 Gremio
05 Feb
Gremio
5-3
Botafogo
Serie A
Nov 25
Botafogo
3-2
Gremio
Serie A
Sept 25
Gremio
1-1
Botafogo
Serie A
Sept 24
Botafogo
0-0
Gremio
Serie A
Jun 24
Gremio
1-2
Botafogo
Serie A
Nov 23
Botafogo
3-4
Gremio
Serie A
Jul 23
Gremio
0-2
Botafogo
Serie A
Feb 21
Botafogo
2-5
Gremio
Serie A
Oct 20
Gremio
3-1
Botafogo
Serie A
Oct 19
Gremio
3-0
Botafogo
Serie A

Gremio hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 2 draws and 3 Botafogo wins. The record points to a tie Gremio have controlled for years, though the draws show Botafogo have at times kept it tight.

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
19135133141944
WWWDD
2
Flamengo
18114335161937
WWLDW
3
Atletico Paranaense
2011362819936
WWWWD
4
Fluminense
199552924532
DDLWD
5
Bahia
208752925431
DDWWL
6
RB Bragantino
199372620630
DWWWL
7
Botafogo
208573432229
WDWLD
16
Gremio
195682125-421
LLWDL
18
Mirassol
195592126-520
DWLWL
19
Remo
194692132-1118
LWLWD
20
Chapecoense-sc
2017121941-2210
DLLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
BotafogoHome
4W3D2L
9 playedGF 17 · GA 131.67 pts/game
GremioAway
0W4D6L
10 playedGF 6 · GA 140.40 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
BotafogoGremio
1.53Goals p.g.1.36
1.18Goals conceded p.g.1.03
24%Clean sheets36%
47%Win rate39%
2.71Avg goals in match2.39
2.01xG per game1.27
0.07xGA per game0.10
50%Possession %51%
6.9Shots on target / game3.6
4.5Corners per game3.4
Botafogo
Recent Form

Botafogo have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Botafogo 0-0 and beat Botafogo 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 10L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: BotafogoAll competitions
26 Jul
Cruzeiro
0-1
Botafogo
Serie A
23 Jul
Botafogo
0-0
Vitoria
Serie A
16 Jul
Botafogo
2-1
Santos
Serie A
30 May
Bahia
2-1
Botafogo
Serie A
27 May
Caracas FC
1-3
Botafogo
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
23 May
Sao Paulo
1-1
Botafogo
Serie A
16
Win
47%
8
Draw
24%
10
Lost
29%
Gremio
Recent Form

Gremio have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gremio 3-2 and lost to Mirassol 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 14W 12D 10L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: GremioAll competitions
23 Jul
Bolívar
3-2
Gremio
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
17 Jul
Mirassol
2-1
Gremio
Serie A
12 Jul
Gremio
3-1
Cruzeiro
Friendlies Clubs
04 Jul
Gremio
1-2
Chapecoense-sc
Friendlies Clubs
27 Jun
Cascavel
1-2
Gremio
Friendlies Clubs
30 May
Gremio
1-3
Corinthians
Serie A
14
Win
39%
12
Draw
33%
10
Lost
28%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Botafogo

No reported absences

Gremio

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.