Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Vasco da Gama to win this match against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Vasco currently sits in 17th place, just above the relegation zone, with a total of 20 points from 18 matches. Their season has been marked by a mixed bag of results, but they have managed to score 22 goals while conceding 29, indicating a competitive edge in attack despite a negative goal difference. In contrast, Chapecoense-sc is struggling at the bottom of the table in 20th place, with only 9 points from 17 games. Their season has been challenging, with just one win to their name and a goal difference of -16. Although they have shown some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, their overall form has not been enough to lift them from the relegation zone. The model provides Vasco da Gama with a win probability of approximately 60%, suggesting they have a solid chance to secure three points in this matchup. However, one potential caveat is that if Chapecoense-sc can harness their recent form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Vasco, they might be able to pull off an upset. For a deeper understanding of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines our in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vasco DA Gama leads 2-1)Vasco DA Gama hold the edge in this fixture, winning 2 of the last 10 meetings with 7 draws and 1 Chapecoense-sc win. The record points to a tie Vasco DA Gama have controlled for years, though the draws show Chapecoense-sc have at times kept it tight.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 21 | DLLLL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-sc have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 0-4 and beat Chapecoense-sc 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 17L from the last 38 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Independiente Medellin 2-2 and lost to Vitoria 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 12D 12L from the last 34 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersChapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Vasco DA Gama
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
