Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sao Paulo vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Sao Paulo to win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sao Paulo currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 25 points from 18 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. While they have a positive goal difference of 3, their recent form shows just one win in the last five matches, indicating some inconsistency. On the other hand, Santos is positioned 15th with 21 points, which reflects a challenging season thus far. They have recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses. Although their goal-scoring tally of 26 goals is higher than Sao Paulo's, they have conceded 29 goals, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. Santos has shown some improvement recently, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are capable of competing. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Sao Paulo, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Sao Paulo's recent form, which may indicate vulnerabilities that Santos could exploit. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)Sao Paulo and Santos have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 4 wins each and 2 draws across the last 10 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 | LLDLL |
| 14 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 22 | DLWLL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSao Paulo have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atletico Paranaense 1-2 and beat Boston River 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 10L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat UCV 1-4 and lost to Botafogo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 13D 11L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSao Paulo
No reported absences
Santos
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
