Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours Botafogo to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 13th place, Botafogo has accumulated 30 points from 24 matches, winning 8 and losing 10. Despite a recent downturn in form, with only one win in their last five matches, they have shown the ability to score, netting 37 goals this season. Their goal difference of -3 indicates that while they have struggled defensively, they can find the back of the net. Gremio, positioned just behind in 15th with 28 points, has had a similar season with 7 wins and 10 losses. Their recent form shows a slight edge with two wins in their last five matches. However, with only 27 goals scored and a goal difference of -5, Gremio’s attack has been less effective than Botafogo’s. This could be a crucial factor as they face a team that has been able to score more frequently. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Botafogo, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their superior scoring ability this season. One caveat to consider is Botafogo's inconsistent form, which could lead to an unexpected result if they fail to convert chances. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Botafogo clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.68 | 2.11 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.72 | 4.01 | 4.84 | 1.74 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.59 | 4.17 | 1.72 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.74 | 3.92 | 4.75 | 1.72 | 2.17 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Gremio, Gremio has won 5 times, Botafogo has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several high-scoring games, including a notable 5-3 victory for Gremio. However, the matches have also featured low-scoring draws, such as two 0-0 and 1-1 results. Notably, Botafogo has not won in the last five encounters, with their last victory over Gremio occurring in June 2024. Overall, Gremio holds a slight edge in this head-to-head record.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 13 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 30 | LLLDW |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Botafogo 2-3 and beat Botafogo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 13L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Internacional 0-0 and lost to RB Bragantino 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 12L from the last 44 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBotafogo
No reported absences
Gremio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 2.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 7.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
