Botafogo vs RB Bragantino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs RB Bragantino
Match Preview
The model favours RB Bragantino to win against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bragantino currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 35 points from 24 matches. Their season has seen them secure 10 wins, which is a notable achievement compared to Botafogo's 8 wins. With a goal difference of +4, Bragantino has been more effective in defence, conceding only 25 goals throughout the season, which highlights their stability at the back. On the other hand, Botafogo is positioned 12th, with 30 points from 24 matches. Their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five games, reflecting a decline in performance. They have conceded 40 goals so far, contributing to a negative goal difference of -3. This inconsistency could prove detrimental as they face a more robust opponent in Bragantino. The model analysis suggests a win probability of 52% for Bragantino, while Botafogo's chances stand at 24%. There is a 24% likelihood of a draw. One caveat to consider is Botafogo's potential to turn around their form, especially playing at home, which could make the match more competitive than expected. For a deeper understanding of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we explain our in-house model based on expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs RB Bragantino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.31 | 3.38 | 2.91 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.39 | 3.57 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.21 | 2.76 | 1.84 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.38 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.38 | 3.48 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and RB Bragantino, Botafogo has won 7 times, with 2 draws and RB Bragantino winning once. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Botafogo, with several matches ending in comfortable victories, including a notable 4-1 win. While RB Bragantino managed a narrow 1-0 victory in one instance, their overall performance has been less convincing against Botafogo, who has consistently found ways to score, often resulting in low-scoring contests for RB Bragantino. The last time RB Bragantino triumphed was in April 2025, highlighting their struggle in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 35 | LLWDL |
| 13 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 30 | LLLDW |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Botafogo 2-3 and beat Botafogo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 13L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
RB Bragantino have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sao Paulo 2-1 and drew with Atletico-MG 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 11D 14L from the last 41 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBotafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
RB Bragantino4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBotafogo
No reported absences
RB Bragantino
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; RB Bragantino 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 2.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 7.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
