Cagliari vs Inter Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cagliari vs Inter
Match Preview
The model favours Inter with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Cagliari. As the season kicks off, Inter starts in a mid-table position but carries forward a solid form from last season, having secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This consistency will be crucial as they look to build momentum early in the new campaign. Cagliari, on the other hand, enters the season with mixed results, managing two wins and three draws in their last five matches. While they hold a strong position in the standings, their lack of competitive matches this season could hinder their performance against a more experienced Inter side. The challenge will be to translate their previous form into the current season, especially against a formidable opponent. The model indicates a win probability for Inter at approximately 60%, projecting a score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and both teams are still finding their rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction, which includes an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches. Inter average 2.1 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Inter have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Inter win as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Inter are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cagliari vs Inter| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.60 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 7.90 | 4.75 | 1.44 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 7.91 | 4.76 | 1.43 | 1.78 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 7.24 | 4.34 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 7.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 8.00 | 4.82 | 1.46 | 1.83 | 2.14 | 1.94 | 1.79 | |
| 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.38 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 2.07 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 7.80 | 4.70 | 1.47 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 7.60 | 4.75 | 1.42 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 2.07 | 1.73 |
BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Inter leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Cagliari and Inter, Cagliari has not won, recording 0 victories, 1 draw, and 9 losses. The scorelines indicate a lopsided rivalry, with Inter frequently securing wins by a margin of two goals or more, as seen in five matches. The lone draw, a 2-2 result, occurred in April 2024, while Cagliari has not emerged victorious in any of the last 10 encounters, highlighting their struggle against Inter. Overall, the historical data suggests a dominant performance by Inter in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 11 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCagliari have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Hellas Verona 1-2 and lost to Inter 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 11L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Inter have won 9 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cagliari 0-1 and beat Juventus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 3L from the last 30 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCagliari4-2-3-1Confirmed
Inter3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersCagliari4
Inter2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Fabbri has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cagliari have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Inter 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Inter have generated 2.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Inter player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
